Chairman speech Corner

The road to peace - Global environmental system design theory 11 (Building an autonomous decentralized control society)

The road to peace - Global environmental system design theory (building an autonomous decentralized control society)

Chairman of the World NGO Peace Ambassadors Council

Katsuyuki Kawaguchi, Chairman of the Japan-Korea Tunnel Promotion Nagasaki Council


10. The forefront of collective intelligence research - Transition of "view of things" (world of autonomous decentralized control)

There is a way to process events and phenomena by looking at them from a higher level, rather than trying to get caught up in them. There is no scientific or technological definition of consciousness. Collective intelligence is the ultimate use of consciousness. It gives a hint that something unknown is visible there. This is because all "things" have a hierarchical structure, as shown in Figure 5.1 Reorganization of Consciousness - A hierarchical structure seen from the principle of unification of religion, science, and art. Cells cannot be understood from each other, and their functions cannot be understood unless they are the "organs" that they constitute.


10.1 Issues that should be addressed using collective intelligence – issues for which there are no objective evaluation criteria

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and shareholders continue to demand a return on equity (ROE) of at least 8%. As an intelligent designer with an optimal design will immediately understand, it is impossible to increase ROE in an era of zero interest rates. Since a portion of overall economic growth is profit, it cannot be achieved without doing various things, such as lowering wages and increasing the number of non-regular employees.


If you increase profits by 8% when interest rates are zero or negative, your labor costs will be reduced. Managers can't sleep well at night. Although the United States' global policy is at a standstill, Japan, which is one step behind, is in need of ``human resources who can respond to globalization'', says the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. However, in an attempt to halt this decline, neoliberals initiated globalization.


However, after peaking just before the Great Economic Crisis, collecting (people, things, money) has begun to decline. International capital flowing into the United States is one-third of its peak (2007). If the United States no longer has economic surplus, it is natural that protectionist policies will be adopted.


However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's policy is to "work more as a tool of the financial economy than of industry." They pretend not to know about the spread of distributed energy, and insist that nuclear power generation should continue because it is base load power generation. However, in reality, the operating rate, which determines the mission of nuclear power generation, is 63%, the average for nuclear power generation in the world is over 80%, Monju has been decommissioned and is not in operation, and the operating rate of nuclear power generation in Japan is the ``lowest''. It goes without saying that in Japan, a country prone to earthquakes, this occupancy rate may fall even further. Furthermore, according to Makoto Gohyaku, the present age is a ``national crisis,'' an ``era of great disasters,'' just like the ``Mongol invasion.''


In Japan, ``child poverty'' and ``child neglect of science and technology'' are currently widespread, and this is a national issue. The issue in which America succeeded was not ``technological development,'' but ``management.'' We created a system in which we created the plans ourselves and outsourced all production to foreign countries where production could be done cheaply. However, the globalized financial economy caused a great economic depression. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry must not be Americanized.


Japan should follow Germany, not America. Germany can't shake. We are halting dangerous nuclear power generation and designing an autonomous decentralized society with distributed energy. The fourth industrial revolution (thinking factory) is about to start in Germany. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry should eliminate the "money collecting" policy and pursue the construction of a unique economic frontier, the path to peace, and the design of the global environmental system. Young people who are full of volunteerism and entrepreneurial spirit will be happy to follow suit.


10.2 Economy and collective intelligence (group synchronicity) - the concept of complex adaptive systems

If Japan were to continue spending twice as much as its annual tax revenue and borrowing money to make up for the shortfall, an economic turmoil would occur that wiped out post-war prosperity. Of course, for the same tax increase, a tax on financial assets, stronger inheritance tax, and stronger international enforcement of tax havens would be better than a regressive consumption tax increase. However, the consumption tax of 10% cannot be said to be at a high level compared to Western countries. This tax increase will be used for ever-increasing medical welfare, so sooner or later everyone will be the beneficiary.


However, all the people are saying is that the previous tax increase in 2014 caused a decline in personal consumption and undermined the achievements of Abenomics.


Is that really true? The idea of ​​intelligent design is to make your own decisions based on facts, and let's examine it using Kosuke Motani's methodology. In order to avoid the effects of last-minute demand and reactionary decline, we will focus on the period from October 2012 to September 2013 during the start of Abenomics, the period from October 2013 to September 2014, which includes the consumption tax increase, and October 2014. Compare March to September 2015. During this period, the Nikkei average continued to rise by about 3,000 to 5,000 yen per year, but the year-on-year change in personal consumption was +1.3%, 0.0%, and -2.0%, respectively. More than half a year after the consumption tax hike, the consumption phenomenon has become more serious. Even though the profits of listed companies improved later on, why did personal consumption not rise?


``The real cause of the slump in consumption is demographic changes that have nothing to do with tax increases.'' As the population of people born in the 1950s retired and were replaced by younger people with lower salaries, total employee remuneration stagnated and total consumption decreased. At the same time, this is due to the synergistic effect of the baby boomers retiring from large companies and the increase in the welfare and nursing care classes, with their salaries almost halved.


What is interesting is that if the tax had been increased, we would have expected a new rush demand of +1.3% (group synchronization) to result from the tax increase, but this was not the case. If we are unable to recognize the flaws in the economic theory (reflation theory) we have believed in, what will we blame in the future?


In this way, it can be seen that the phenomena of an increasingly complex society are closer to divine judgment when viewed as collective intelligence based on complex adaptive systems, that is, the synchronicity of groups.


As a countermeasure to the slump in personal consumption, the government will promote wage increases for "young people" who have a latent desire to spend, and at the same time eliminate disparities that cause corruption. Reviving the middle class through the ``middle class of all citizens'' will increase ``domestic demand.'' Also, when dealing with important matters, they are able to make common sense judgments based on the facts. The restructured ``all 100 million middle class'' will be able to make smarter decisions, and this will have the potential to correct the series of failures of the country's major projects to date.


10.3 Recent research and development on collective intelligence (group synchrony)

Up until now, we have shown through concrete examples that collective intelligence (group synchronicity) is one level above specialized knowledge, but let's take a look at its cutting-edge research and development.


The most interesting applications of online collective intelligence are in areas where there are no objective evaluation criteria, and it is useful for intelligent design of phenomena where there are no right answers.


(1) Utilization of open science - ordinary people's online collective knowledge

"Open Science" is attracting attention as a new form of "knowledge" in the 21st century. This is the participation of ordinary people (amateur citizens) in cutting-edge research and development of science and technology via the Internet, and is described as the "open science revolution" by Michael Nielsen, Kinokuniya Shoten, 2013. The current situation is vividly expressed. ``Open science'' is a pure and free research activity in which ``ordinary people'' are involved, unrelated to the interests of large organizations, and is one of the representative applications of online collective intelligence. To do so, it is necessary to accurately analyze and decompose the problem, and to set easy-to-understand objective evaluation criteria (such as minimizing energy consumption).


This method involves breaking down issues (a rugby term that refers to the handling of the ball during a scrum) until an objective evaluation standard for each individual is created, and ultimately, If so, it is the same as the ``optimal design theory'' that is determined by ``which one should I choose?''. Instead of physicists just counting money on Wall Street, we will use this new way of thinking to improve ourselves and carry out government administration. Finland is a great country to do this.


(2) Open Dialogue (OD) - ``Resurrection'' of psychiatry against biologicalism

According to Tamaki Saito (Professor at the University of Tsukuba), "Open Dialogue" (written by Jaako Seitsukla and Tom Erik Arnkil, Nippon Hyoronsha) is a spirit that has been developed and practiced in Finland since the 1980s. It is a technique of therapeutic intervention for disorders. It has achieved extremely good treatment results without requiring much drug treatment or hospitalization, and is attracting worldwide attention. The results of this ``collective knowledge'' and ``group synchrony,'' or open dialogue (OD), in mental health care are remarkable. At 5-year follow-up, 17% of patients continued to take their medication (compared to 75% in the group receiving conventional treatment), and 19% received disability pension benefits (62% in the conventional treatment group). ).


Its technical methodology is surprisingly simple. The treatment team visits the patient at home. This is sometimes repeated every day. That's it.


This dialogue is not just a dialogue. Open dialogue does not persuade patients. "I don't aim to get better. I just think about connecting high-quality dialogue. Through dialogue, diverse voices intersect, perspectives are connected, and painful experiences are shared. The treatment is brought about as if it were a by-product.


Additionally, Professor Tom Arnkill of the Finnish National Institute of Health and Welfare is the founder of ``Future Dialogue Techniques'' (AD) and is developing techniques for support staff. In the field of support, collaboration between multiple specialized fields such as medical care, health prevention, and education is necessary. However, in administrative settings, collaboration often fails due to the vertically divided structure. In such cases, AD is an innovative technique that promotes collaboration between multiple professions.


Multiple supporters, the supported person and their related parties, and an external pair leader participate. They ask all participants to imagine a situation in the near future, one year from now, in which all real-life problems have been solved. Place yourself at that point in the future and ask them to "remember" one year ago, that is, the present. What went well in solving the problem, and who helped? We ask them to ``remember'' each of these aspects one by one.


Discussions about ``who should do what'' tend to lead to confusion over each party's positions and interests. However, once the problem has been broken down (decomposed) using associative abilities through the above thinking process, it can be handled in the individual's field of responsibility, and all that remains is to determine the division of roles and responsibilities, and create an implementation plan diagram. This is the same methodology that I talked about in ``How to see things'' (III), Katsuyuki Kawaguchi, World Peace Research. The technique of "remembering" the present from the near future, due to its indirectness, encourages emotional techniques and associative relationships, and also promotes stability of thinking and synchronicity of groups due to complex pairings among diverse occupations. make it easier. And he does not persuade the trainees. They expect it to come naturally to them.


This is exactly what is being applied to the educational method of Finnish schools, and the current situation where children have the best academic results in the world even though their class time is short is considered to be a good thing.


The mainstream of modern mental health care is based on biological principles centered on drug treatment. Commentator Tamaki Saito also argues that the practice of OD and AD poses the challenge of restoring the relationship between ``human beings'' and ``words,'' and ``subjects'' and ``stories.'' This is nothing less than a ``resurrection of spirituality'' among the Japanese as a whole, or a ``resurrection'' of ``group synchronicity'' based on collective intelligence.


10.4 Autonomous or emergent collective knowledge – realizing creative acts emergently as a group.

Finding such a goal itself is a major feature of collective intelligence. In the case of encyclopedia or software development, the goals to be achieved are given from outside, but on Niconico Douga (a video sharing site typified by YouTube), creating new videos is part of the process of collective knowledge. is born in Figure 10.1 shows part of the relationship of the creative act. The circle indicates the video, and the line indicates its use/participation. The size of the circle represents the number of references from others, and the density of the circle represents different types of creative acts. As you can see from this figure, the relationships vary.


By watching the videos, participants are motivated to create new videos, which they then create and post. The number of related videos that many people are interested in increases, and each related video is produced, resulting in the creation of a complex, large-scale network of videos as shown in the diagram. There is no pre-set goal of what kind of video to make, but rather it is the result of collective intelligence and group synchronicity. In other words, it can be said to be autonomous or emergent collective knowledge. The participants are diverse, ranging from professionals to amateurs, and their independence is maintained. Its characteristic is ``dispersion'', where one video is connected and generated in large quantities as ``large scale''.



Figure 10.1 Video network expressing “group synchrony” through collective intelligence (Takeda, 2015)


▶ Conclusion: What autonomous decentralized control means

This kind of self-organizing, emergent collaboration is also being developed in the academic world. Group synchronization and cooperation takes place in the form of quoting and referencing academic papers. As a collection of these, academia is an emergent collective knowledge that determines its own direction. The brain's information processing system behaves in exactly the same way, and we can see that this is a world of ``autonomous decentralized control,'' similar to the world of Nico Nico Douga's production and development.


In this way, a wider range of people and a larger number of people can now participate via the Internet. It will greatly contribute to the development of ``Global Environmental System Design Theory'' and the further development of the academic world. The characteristics of the brain's information processing system, which creates such "autonomous distributed control," are listed again in Figure 10.2.



Figure 10.2 Characteristics of the brain's autonomous decentralized control system - Learning controllability using emotional (emotional) information

From “Research on the expression of human inner sensitivity”


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