Chairman speech Corner

The road to peace - Global environmental system design theory 7 (Building an autonomous decentralized control society)

The Road to Peace - Global Environmental System Design Theory (Building an Autonomous Decentralized Control Society)
Chairman of the World NGO Peace Ambassadors Council Chairman
of the Japan-Korea Tunnel Promotion Nagasaki Council Katsuyuki Kawaguchi


6 Creation of cultural science and technology - Development of technology to respond to changes on the earth

In order for Japan to survive for a long time, it is essential to create cultural science and technology. And by exporting it to many countries suffering from global disasters, it will contribute to world peace.


Recently, as the frequency of meteorological changes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, mountain eruptions, intense heat, floods, landslides, and global warming has been rapidly increasing, Japan has become increasingly aware of the effects of future phenomena (once they occur, they will cause major disasters, resulting in loss of human life and economic damage). We propose to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry that ``disaster prevention and regeneration techniques'' for the disaster prevention (with large losses) are considered ``cultural techniques.''


Another serious problem on earth is the disparity caused by the unilateral "collection" of all things and money, that is, the problem of "the earth's semi-biological imbalance." In short, market fundamentalist economic theory is a theory that ``creates a single environment of ``collecting money'' from a diverse environment,'' so it does exactly the same thing as ``financial collecting.'' (uniformity of behavior). From the perspective of complex adaptive systems theory, such a world will deteriorate biologically and will eventually lead to "ruin." When a complex system loses its diversity, crises become deadly, like desertification . A typical example of this is the economic collapse of 2008, which symbolically expresses that ``the earth is finite.'' Research”, 2016).


6.1 Possibility of artificial earth collapse phenomenon and its countermeasures

With the exception of events originating from changes in the solar system, meteorite collisions, and nuclear wars, the only way the Earth would die would be if the climate change described above progresses slowly and rapid impact disasters occur repeatedly. Until that time, we will complete our ``life'' and quietly disappear while imagining the ``beauty of the end''. Artists may think so. However, when it comes to man-made catastrophes, Kyushu Danji, a warrior from Tsushima, Nagasaki Prefecture, who fought against a large army of 100,000 Yuan troops with over 200 cavalry and was killed in battle, does not think so. right.


The effects of economic policy become apparent in a relatively short period of time, but the effects of educational policy, including technology improvement policies, take a long time and are not immediately apparent. Therefore, course corrections are rare. The successive implementation of politically-led educational reforms and financial-centeredness are fraught with great danger. In particular, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry need people who can master science and technology. Children are losing interest in science and technology, and poverty is increasing. In this situation, Japan and the Earth will only sink. We have gone from an era when it was enough to distribute profits to an era of extremely difficult negative interest rates.


Originally a research and development project carried out by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, a research team from the Maritime Intelligence Division of the Japan Coast Guard, which researched basic design data at the cutting edge of cultural science and technology, announced this in the British scientific journal Nature. It is the result of 10 years of data acquisition and analysis on a shoestring budget. It is said that ``Unlike Europe and the United States, the real strength of the Japanese economy lies in small and medium-sized enterprises.'' It is these ``small and medium-sized enterprises'' that give us hope for the future, rather than large corporations or centralized organizations. It is a small, on-the-ground organization that makes its own decisions based on facts


For the first time in the world, we have clarified the distribution of strain accumulated in seafloor rock plates in the assumed epicenter area of ​​the next major earthquake, the Nankai Trough megaquake.


To begin with, gigantic earthquakes occur at the boundary where the oceanic plate slides beneath the landward plate due to minute movements of the ocean floor. Strain accumulates on the land plate that has been pulled in, and an earthquake occurs when the bent upper plate attempts to return to its original state. The research team installed observation equipment at 15 locations on the ocean floor in the assumed epicenter area of ​​Shizuoka Prefecture to Kochi Prefecture, and used observation vessels that can determine the exact location to investigate crustal deformation on the ocean floor. As shown in Figure 6.1, as a result of analyzing 10 years of data from 2006 to 2015, there are "strong strain areas" that accumulate around 5 cm per year in areas such as the Enshu Sea, off the coast of the Kii Peninsula, and off the southern coast of Shikoku. I found out something. The ``strong strain area'' extended further to the southwest from the epicenter area of ​​the hypothetical Tokai earthquake and the 1946 Nankai earthquake with a magnitude of M8.0.


Once this strain data and strain rate distribution, as well as "active fault" and seafloor data that affect the propagation and amplitude of the earthquake source, are accumulated, the comprehensive superposition theory is used to predict the amplitude or amplitude of the next earthquake. It should be possible to estimate the estimated time of occurrence based on simulation tests using the parameter method.


(1) Operation rate and safety design of Japanese nuclear plants

Of Japan's 54 nuclear power plants, there is only measurement data on the "earth bearing capacity" of the earth's surface, and some of these plants are built on active faults . This is a far cry from the time when we were constantly being fooled by the nuclear safety myth that ``ignorance is the truth.'' While the operating rate of nuclear power plants in France, the United States, and South Korea is over 80%, I hear that nuclear power plants in Japan have an operating rate of 63% on average, with some operating at 29%.


Japan is a country with volcanoes and earthquakes, so this is bound to happen. Under these circumstances, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry repeatedly says on TV, ``Nuclear power plants are base load plants.'' TEPCO's president repeatedly tells the workers at the site, ``Increase the operating rate.'' The world's energy production has become an autonomous, decentralized, distributed energy utilization system, yet we have no understanding of intelligent design.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has been swallowed up by economics ever since it was given the name economics. This is the cause of children's abandonment of science and technology, child poverty, and confusion in corporate management. It was Japan that established ``engineering,'' which combines science and technology. The character for engineering means the shape that supports the sky. I watch over them as if praying.


6.2 Disaster prevention and regeneration technology that Japan should develop

Japan's shield method tunnel excavation technology is rated as the best in the world, as exemplified by the Anglo-French tunnel (co-produced by Kawaju and Mitsubishi). The technology to safely excavate tunnels can serve as evacuation centers, shelters, waterways, human routes, material supply routes, and can also be considered a ``disaster prevention technology'' as it can also be a tool for social development. If properly used, it can be used for disaster prevention, transportation, and safety, and I have never heard of it being destroyed by an earthquake.


The International Highway Foundation is conducting a survey of the seismic zone on the ocean floor near the assumed sea passage of the Japan-Korea Tunnel. According to Masuo Oe, the foundation's director, the organization conducts ultrasonic surveys of the seafloor 1,000 meters deep at 20 km and 5 km mesh (square) points, and creates a map of the distribution of active faults (Figure 6.2). They introduced an experimental vessel equipped with a water gun system, and spent 1 billion yen over 10 years to collect ocean floor data.


Needless to say, having such basic design data will enable safety design of long tunnels.

Although basic design data for the underground design of the seabed is being collected through efforts on the ground, there are still discussions about the location conditions for new nuclear power plants, such as events that suggest the possibility of earthquakes and eruptions in volcanic zones on land. However, it is little known to the general public.


(1) The story of “active faults” and “strain distribution” hidden all around us (centered on the Great Kumamoto Earthquake)

There are over 2000 active faults across the country. Takuya Nishimura of Kyoto University's Disaster Prevention Research Institute used GPS (Global Positioning System) to confirm that the epicenter of the Kumamoto Earthquake, including aftershocks, was located in an area where ground distortion is likely to accumulate. Strain accumulates when the ground is compressed or pulled under constant force.

Earthquakes occur when the rock can no longer withstand it and is destroyed. Figure 6.1 (b) also shows the distribution of active faults, but no active faults have been found in Tottori and Miyazaki, despite the accumulation of strain and strong earthquakes. In Kumamoto, active faults and strain zones coincide. This study teaches us that not only active fault areas but also strain accumulation should be noted in disaster prevention measures such as the probability of earthquake occurrence.

According to research by Kimio Kamoshida, the probability of dying in a traffic accident within 30 years is approximately 0.2%. The probability of dying or being injured in a fire is approximately 0.2%. So, what is the probability that major active faults nationwide will cause a major earthquake?


In the case of the northern section of the Futagawa Fault Zone, where the magnitude of the Great Kumamoto Earthquake was large, the Earthquake Research Promotion Headquarters announced an assessment of the probability of active fault activity within 30 years as 0.9%. Although the number itself may seem low at 0.9%, it is 4 to 5 times more likely than traffic accidents or fire accidents, which is a serious problem. Observation data clearly shows that buildings and nearby buildings above the active fault were seriously damaged. Kumamoto Prefecture was relieved that the numbers were low and had been promoting efforts to attract companies, but they were relieved because they had never experienced a major earthquake, but they were disappointed by this result.


What is interesting is the relationship between active faults and roads. In areas where active faults move, the rocks rub against each other, weakening them, allowing rock powder to accumulate, and making them susceptible to erosion. As a result, a linear valley was created, which has been used as a highway since ancient times.

"Saba Kaido", which connects Wakasa and Kyoto, is one of them, and runs along the Hanaori fault zone. The Chugoku Expressway is said to run along the Yamazaki Fault Zone, and the Shikoku-Odan Expressway also runs along the Median Tectonic Line Fault Zone.

Active faults are common in mountain regions such as basins. According to Takashi Nakata, professor emeritus at Hiroshima University, public facilities such as schools and hospitals tend to cluster near active faults. This may be the reason why large buildings such as schools and roads are heavily damaged.


6.3 Conclusion: Recommendations to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

Is there a way to harness the beauty, spirituality, and potential (power of magma) of Mt. Fuji? Fugen in Unzen, Ontake in Kiso, Mt. Mihara, and Kuchi Erabu erupted one after another, and Asama and Sakurajima continue to erupt.

Fujiyama also doesn't know when it will explode. Once it explodes, the damage is immeasurable. The main purpose of the design is to ``establish a method to prevent eruptions'' of volcanic mountain eruptions, and the ejected gas will be used in ``high-efficiency cogeneration gas turbines'' and steam will be used in ``geothermal power generation'' to contribute to regional revitalization. We propose that "cultural heritage preservation through energy production and safety enhancement" be established from a long-term perspective (Figure 6.3).

This is because the fusion of science, technology, and art will lead to the creation of new "cultural technologies." In other words, we will generate gas-free power from volcanic mountains that are at risk of eruption. Gas turbines are suitable as distributed energy sources because they do not require water and are lightweight and powerful.


Japan's ``shield method tunnel excavation technology'' is the best in the world. Monitoring and the use of this "shield tunnel machine" allow for highly safe work.

Yasuzaemon Matsunaga, a power guru, proposed, ``Don't rush nuclear power generation.Japan has the world's best hydroelectric power generation.'' This pumped storage hydroelectric power generation technology is the most suitable technology for Japan in terms of energy production and storage. Japan, the land of water, creates energy by circulating water. We will do this as a public project. It also makes it possible to store energy without the need for lithium-ion batteries. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is not promoting this or geothermal power generation.


Above all, it is important to equip elementary school students, who are full of curiosity, with knowledge and preparation for natural disasters. Beyond English education, we must make children aware of the kind of country Japan is. There is no need for "children" to learn the language of a country that does not have words like "lose but win."

First, show the scene of the damage. If you go to the scene, you will know which houses collapsed and which escaped damage. This will stimulate people to move away from science and technology and cultivate the spirit of intelligent design.




Figure 6.1(a) Nankai Trough mega-earthquake

Epicenter area plate research survey <Japan Coast Guard Information Department 2016>



Figure 6.1(b) Distribution of land strain by GPS

Examples of earthquakes larger than M6 (Iida 2016)



Figure 6.2 Geological survey of the strait and surface areas of Tsushima, Iki, and Karatsu

<Oe 2009>



Figure 6.3 The world seen from inside Hokusai's Great Tornado and the flight of the dragon that calls the vortex over Fuji

Hokusai tried to present the sublimity and energy of Fuji to the world.

From “Research on the expression of human inner sensitivity”


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