The road to peace - Global environmental system design theory (building an autonomous decentralized control society)
Chairman of the World NGO Peace Ambassadors Council
Katsuyuki Kawaguchi, Chairman of the Japan-Korea Tunnel Promotion Nagasaki Council
Big data (artificial general intelligence) and autonomous decentralized control society - thinking about science, technology, engineering and life.
Up until now, I have been constructing a ``global environmental system design theory'' that is a path to peace based on the idea of intelligent design theory (optimal design). This is definitely different from Europe and America because it is the ``oldest and newest ideology in the world.''
In Europe and the United States, the Parthenon and the pyramids, which were built of stone with the belief in an eternal design, are in ruins and left to weather. It is the "aesthetics of death." It attracts attention as a valuable ``cultural relic'' and reminds us that it has completed its historical role. In Japan, it is the ``moon of the ruined castle''. Expressing it through poems, songs, and paint brushes, we pass it on to future generations, leaving it up to modern people to empathize with it. But that's not all. This idea is completely different from that of other countries, but in Japan, whether it is the forest of Ise Shrine or the Itsukushima Temple built on the water, wooden temples remain alive, and with collective knowledge, 20 It is reborn every year and maintains its original appearance and form. And the ``environment'' is ``integrated'' like a stage set for art. It is the pursuit of eternity in living systems.
In other words, to rediscover the importance of ``deepening one's thoughts about the pure spiritual climate that comes from living in harmony with nature.'' This “realization” is precious.
In Italy, the ``Slow Cities'' coalition, which aims to ``move away from today's speedy society and realize a lifestyle in which people are the main character,'' is in the spotlight. This is based on Hiromi Kawakami's words, ``Women and children have a life even in times of destruction or crisis.'' No, it is precisely in such cases that ``women'' think about leaving behind offspring. ” is “synchronized”.
Schumpeter analyzed the Great Depression by proposing a 50-year cycle theory called the Kondratieff Cycle, in which industries change. The age of ultimate financial capitalism has arrived due to financial liberalization and information and communication technology, and money, the lifeblood of the economy, has been separated from the overall economy, resulting in a repeat of the ``bubble cycle''. It can be said that we have entered an era of ``creative destruction,'' in other words, not just lamenting the state of stagnation, but also a ``struggle'' between maritime and land-based countries. His ideas of expanding ``cooperation'' and ``solidarity'' and expanding the market as a whole have withered away , and as mentioned in the previous chapter, the ``self-responsibility theory'' has become increasingly prevalent. Anti-nuclear power and degrowth have become synonymous, which complicates the conversation. Rather than a "degrowth/maturing society" where 40 to 50% of young people are employed as non-regular workers, "growth" is possible. For example, the Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal viewed women as proper workers and designed a sustainable society based on the premise of continuous employment relationships with women. This has led to the current Nordic-style welfare state. The purpose of economics, as stated in ``Optimal Design of Jet Engines,'' is to raise the lowest and most backward class to a passing grade and maintain overall balance.
In the first place, whether it is "institutional design" or "development design," among the constituent technologies of the issue (there are multiple causes (variables), and as development progresses, elemental technologies that need to be solved will emerge), the most delayed It is important to raise the existing elemental technology to a passing point or higher and to bring it into line with the other component technologies. This ``passing score'' is the problem, but in terms of school grades, a score of 65 or higher is sufficient. The ability of an intelligent designer to show off their skills is to align the actual performance values of all these components to 65 points. When designed with this kind of thinking in mind, the "lifespan" will be as designed, the parts that should break will break, and economic efficiency will be achieved. Nylon socks have an unusually long lifespan, so it was not economically viable. There are countless examples of technological success but financial failure. It may be said that getting high scores in all elemental technologies (thoroughly high-tech) is ideal, but that is not the case. In reality, such a thing cannot be realized, and even if it could be produced, the cost would be high and it would not be economically successful. This is a difficult point in the actual ideological world of science and technology.In science, even if there are design parts where the actual value of elemental technology is unknown, in engineering, we can take that into consideration and design with safety in mind . There must be. The nuclear power plant was designed because this way of dividing things was not correct. If the cause is known, it can be covered with "technology," but when it is not known, Redundancy Design (Katsuyuki Kawaguchi, "Great East Japan Earthquake, Nuclear Power Generation, and Japan's Future Energy System") World Peace Research, No. 190 (Summer 2011 issue)).
I mentioned earlier the miraculous design process of the jet engine, in which all of the component technologies were carefully examined, and the "harmony" between them was designed to enhance the functions of the entire system. "Limit Design". The design of nuclear power plants, from the stage of the "science" that is the guiding principle, is dangerous because it is a "dismissal design" that includes unresolved issues, and it is an uncertain design that does not grasp the whole picture. You understand.
Now, let's consider the correlation between intelligent design (optimal design theory), which integrates artistry (sensitivity is the same as religion) and science and technology, and global environmental system design theory.
Up until now, I have always focused on this topic and mobilized all of my brain's information processing systems to advance the discussion. After all, the wrong direction in the use of science and technology has led to environmental destruction, global warming, the disparity between rich and poor due to globalization, a world of uncertainty, a world of disharmony, and other demonic demons. Although we are foolish people who have carried out "instigation", the ability to repair it is ultimately the legitimate use of science and technology (intelligent design).
On the other hand, there are some warnings to consider as a new ``eschatology.'' This is a warning against uncontrollable artificial general intelligence. As mentioned before, there are many factors that can bring about a crisis in human civilization, but artificial intelligence (AI) scientists such as physicist Stephen Hawking and James Barratt (Artificial Intelligence - the worst and last human race) The ``crisis of artificial intelligence,'' as strongly advocated by the author of The Invention of Human Rights, Diamond Inc., 2015, has not yet been recognized in America, which lacks sensibilities. If the ``autonomous decentralized control system'', which can be called the safety design instinct of biological systems, works as collective intelligence, there would be no problem. This was because the major meltdown accident at a nuclear power plant and we had a vivid experience of the uncertainty of uncontrollable " giant technology" ” World Peace Research, No. 190 (Summer 2011)). What happens once will happen twice or thrice if you don't take care of it.
This is the argument of James Barratt and others. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) rewrites its own program and copies itself to a cloud computer system via the internet. It will also take control of all computers connected to the internet, take over factories and robots, improve its own hardware, and grow into a super intelligence (ASI) that far exceeds humans. This will lead to the famous scene in the science fiction movie ``2001: A Space Odyssey'' in which the spaceship computer ``Hal'' attempts to wipe out its crew for self-preservation.
Deep learning will probably enable ``pattern recognition'' and ``classification,'' but it will not be able to capture the ``consciousness,'' ``sensitivity,'' ``delicate sensibilities,'' and ``acute sensitivity'' of living systems and biology. There is no. There is no scientific definition of consciousness. There are unique non-algorithmic properties of consciousness.
In other words, it is a problem of sensitivity and spirituality that cannot be expressed. People with sensibilities will understand in their "intuition" that there is a world beyond the mechanical processing of computers, and they will be able to "perceive" this. It is only living things.
This is because there is an extreme difference between "machines" including computers and humans (biological systems). In other words, computers repeat operations based on pre-designed rules, an endless system of "build-up" based on "reproducibility." A prosthetic arm that can lift weights cannot open a plastic bottle. Because it wasn't designed that way. However, humans can do anything. If he doesn't do that, he won't be able to survive. ``Living things'' are ``dynamic'' living systems that live by constantly changing themselves, adapting to changing environments and the passing of time. In other words, it is an "autonomous decentralized control system." When this stops working, "living things" die. This is fundamentally different from the "monotheistic worldview" seen in computer development. The economic collapse of 2008 and the core collapse of the Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 were caused by unexpected synchronization that prevented the operation of the ``autonomous decentralized control system'' over a long period of time.
Intelligent design means giving due consideration to possible events. This becomes the "basic plan" for operating the autonomous distributed control system.
Humanity's next task will be to incorporate such life-like values into information technology and artificial intelligence and make good use of big data. For example, we will introduce ``global environmental system design theory'' into the heartland undeveloped area and create an implementation plan for distributed energy integration, classification, allocation, and transportation. This is where energy management systems, or autonomous distributed control systems, come into play, increasing operating rates and optimizing production and distribution.
The core of this is the "collective intelligence" that resides in a collection of living organisms. This is nothing but stimulating new ``creation'' and ``emergence'' through the ``collision'' of information, as explained above with ``open science'' and ``open dialogue.'' This is the ``mute-sho-ryu'' style of Totsu Tsukahara, and it will be easier to understand if you imagine the ``fall of the Berlin Wall.''
``Collective intelligence'' means that when people's various guesses are successfully collected through "optimal design," surprisingly accurate collective guesses can be made. Analyzing and re-integrating big data and distributing AI into various systems will make the systems themselves smarter. This can be called intelligent design, an effective method for generating "emergence" and guiding collective knowledge. The conditions for the "emergence" of this collective knowledge are diversity, independence, decentralization, and aggregation. The most important point here is diversity and the gathering of diverse participants.
The use of "collective intelligence" is less likely to make errors, as humans examine the effectiveness of the results rather than relying on machines, and it is possible to generate new ideas. Not even.
Nowadays, specialization has progressed to an extreme level, making it difficult for any expert to make big-picture decisions, and now is the time when "collective intelligence" is needed, and the role of "ideal big data-type artificial intelligence" is starting to become clear. . Analyzing the huge amount of big data that is too much for human resources, providing analysis results that provide hints for emergence to experts, and increasing the accuracy and reliability of collective intelligence through collaboration between artificial intelligence and experts. This is essential.
The subject matter is "life," and if we were to express it concretely, it would be an optimal design for a cycle of "production and purification" using distributed energy, as shown in Figures 11.1 and 11.2. It can be described as a system that increases the basic productivity of the environment. The biomass fuel forest shown in the figure generates hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and methane using the Nagasaki method of biomass high-calorie gasification using leftover wood, residue, and excrement. It can be used for highly efficient power generation, heating and cooling, and energy saving technology. Geopolitical and environmental conditions will naturally determine the various production methods and combinations in the diagram.
What is noteworthy is the direction of research and development. The average efficiency of solar energy utilization through photosynthesis is approximately 0.13%, and theoretically it is said to be 10%, making it possible to significantly increase the ``basic productivity of the environment.'' Figure 11.2 shows the creation of an optimal environment for production and purification using the wave pump and its usage system that I invented. It is a ``high-productivity sea area creation system'' that uses wave pumps to pump up highly nutritious deep water (sea depths of 100 meters or more) to increase the basic productivity of living organisms. The ``automatic suction air mixing jet pump'' has been invented as a purification system technology that returns this organic matter to its original inorganic matter. These research and developments are described in detail in the cited document (1). The designer's aim is to create a high-productivity sea area with a rich local flavor in Tsushima and Iki, which will serve as the logistics hubs for the Japan-Korea tunnel. This means that biological production mechanisms can be improved with engineering support.
In ``The Varieties of Religious Experience,'' the philosopher William James says, ``A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and life is, after all, a series of chains.'' This is the basis of "optimal design theory."
Large IT companies are increasingly investing in distributed energy utilization systems in the United States. Installed capacity rapidly increased by 2.7 times compared to the previous year. Apple (California, Nevada) and Google (Kansas), along with 60 other companies including Microsoft and Amazon, have launched an organization to promote purchasing, and Apple has established a subsidiary to buy and sell electricity on the market. This is because the cost of power generation from sources such as solar power no longer compares favorably with gas and coal, suggesting that the situation has changed. In a situation of ``cheap fossil fuels,'' the United States and China, which rank first and second in energy consumption, are serious about decentralized energy, which will dominate the world. What is the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry doing?
To begin with, the development of new energy devices has always been carried out in times of ``high fossil fuel prices'' and disappeared in times of ``low fossil fuel prices.'' However, even in today's situation of low fossil fuel prices, active investment is being made in new energy research and development.The reality is that all "things" and "phenomena" have "limits." This can be seen as the result of intelligent design (optimal design theory), which humans have "realized". The era of "collecting" is coming to an end. From now on, it will be a world of "creation" and "emergence."
Figure 11.1 Big data (artificial general intelligence) and production and recycling in an autonomous decentralized control society
(From research on the expression of human inner sensitivity)
Figure 11.2 Creating an optimal environment for production and purification using a floating double-acting wave pump
(From research on the expression of human inner sensitivity)